000
FXUS64 KMRX 070745
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.
UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL STREAM MAINLY THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS WITH PASSING OF SHORT WAVE THEN
REBUILD BACK IN TONIGHT. MORNING FOG ALONG WATERWAYS. TEMPS WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON
SUNDAY...WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY FOR CONTINUED DRY
AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS.  MAIN QUESTION IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO
BE THE TRACK OF TUESDAY/S APPROACHING TROPICAL LOW AND HOW MUCH
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA.   CURRENT MODEL RUNS
TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING MUCH OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...MINIMIZING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP INTO THE MRX
CWA.  ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED INTO THE
REGION...THOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE IS LOW.
OVERALL...WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH DID LOWER THEM SLIGHTLY.  HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT TN             71  40  74  46  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT TN  67  41  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE TN                       68  41  72  42  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT TN              66  35  70  38  68 /   0   0   0   0  10

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BRADLEY...GRAINGER...
     HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...
     MCMINN...MEIGS...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST
     COCKE...NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SEQUATCHIE...
     UNION...WEST POLK.

VA...NONE.

SON/MJB